Year End 2024 Outlook: Soft Landings Are Murky

By: Brian Seay, CFA

Will the market keep charging forward or are we on the brink of a recession? Soft landings are just that, slower, softer economic activity. They don’t feel great. What about the Mag 7 technology stocks, will they continue to lead the way forward? Will a Trump victory ignite more inflation and cause interest rates to rise? I cover all of this and more in our Outlook for the 4th Quarter. Watch the video below, or listen to the podcast version whereever you listen to podcasts. Topics and Full Transcript Below.

Topics:

0:00 - Intro

1:28 - What’s Happened in Markets So Far This Year?

5:02 - Jobs Market

13:06 - Inflation

15:28 - What’s Happening in Real Life with Companies

18:01 – Stock Market Outlook - Mag 7 vs. the 493

21:32 – International Stocks and China

23:55 - Oil and Commodities

27:18 - Long-Term Interest Rates and Bonds

34:35 - Gold

36:12 - Election Impact

39:57 - Takeaways for Investors

Transcript:

Hello and welcome to the 4th Quarter Outlook and latest edition of the Capital Stewards Podcast. Markets continue to climb this year, despite fears that rising unemployment will cause a recession. In this episode we will talk about what’s happening in the jobs market after the scary prints from August. The Mag 7 and growth stocks are still leading the way so far in the stock market this year, but are we in for a change? Will those runs continue, we will cover that in this episode as well. Where will interest rates, gold and oil go, all of those other assets have been on a roller coaster, we will share our views on where those rides end. Oh – and if you haven’t turned on your TV – we have an election coming up. Will a Trump victory spark inflation? What about the tax hikes proposed by Kamala Harris? I’ll close this episode out on the election.  As always, these outlook episodes are longer, so I know you will want to listen to the whole thing, but in case you’re looking for something specific, check the notes and you can skip ahead to the different topics I discuss. There’s lots of charts in this episode, so if you’re listening to the podcast version, consider watching on YouTube so that you can see the charts. Alright – let’s dive into the economy and markets as we move through the 4th quarter of 2024.

What’s Happened in Markets So Far This Year?

Let’s start with what’s happened so far this year. On the chart you can see the S&P 500 stock index in the red line. It’s now up more than 21% for the year, only to be outdone by Gold, which is up more than 27% since January. While home and building prices are generally flat to down, publicly traded portfolios of real estate, REITS, are up 10%. Most of that gain came in the 3rd quarter as long-term interest rates started to fall. Bonds are now up more than 3% for the year, also mostly from strong gains in Q3 as interest rates declined. We will dive into the economy more in a moment, but obviously we have not yet had a recession and staying the course has been a good move for investors.

This year has been good, but most of our clients, and most investors in general, have long-term goals that extend far beyond 2024.  The most important factor in investing success is choosing the right assets and sticking with them long-term. You can see over the last 28 years, the S&P 500 is averaging 9.8% per year in returns. Stocks produce the highest return over long periods of time, even when you consider the recessions that happened in 2001, 2007 and Covid in 2020. Gold returns just over 7.0% annually, Bonds just over 4%, all outpacing inflation, even after the recent run-up in inflation, at 2.5%.

When we zoom in and look at the past decade, The S&P 500 has returned more than 13% each year on average, Gold and Real Estate around 7% and Bonds are actually the laggard averaging only 1.8%. You can see the draw down in Bond performance as rates rose after Covid. Much of that has turned around recently.

When you think about the 28 year and 10 year history, you would be a very happy investor today if you invested at the peak of markets before the global financial crisis or right before Covid. We will take about the current state of the U.S. economy and markets in a minute – but investing solely based on whether we will, or will not have a recession or whether stocks are overpriced and in a bubble is a bad idea. First, it’s hard to make those calls correctly. Nearly 100% of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg thought we would have a recession in 2023. We did not. Stock valuations were high coming into this year and many expected a pullback, now the S&P 500 is more than 20% higher than it was to start the year. Recessions and market drawdowns don’t feel good, I’ve lived through a few myself, but building a portfolio you can stick with through the hard times is the best way to achieve long-term compound returns. So regardless of the rest of this outlook, think about your portfolio and other assets and whether you feel comfortable regardless of the environment – good or bad - going forward. If you have concerns, then its probably time to seek out professional advice.

What’s been driving strong returns this year? Let’s start by looking at the economy and then we can dive into specific asset classes.

Jobs Market

The jobs market has been in the news lately. Job creation and unemployment in the U.S. are so important because consumer spending – that’s you and me – makes up 2/3s of the economy. So if consumers start losing Jobs and spending less, that ultimately causes a recession. My view has been that the jobs market has come back into balance. We have been looking at this chart for the last few years and assessing the gap between job openings and those looking for work. There are still more jobs than available works, but that gap has closed significantly. We had a small gap between openings and unemployed workers before Covid, which was pushing up wages slightly. Prior to this year, most of the work to close this gap was done by the reduction of open jobs as businesses simply hired fewer people. More concerning recently is that the number of unemployed workers – the red line – along with the unemployment rate has risen.

On the next page, you can see a comparison of the labor force and jobs market measured by non-farm payrolls. On the left, you see strong job creation coming out of Covid in 2021. The change in the labor force – i.e. the number of people that might be able to fill to jobs – lagged behind. But as we moved into 2022 and 2023 – we saw the labor force growth substantially to fill the open roles. Some of the was U.S. citizens returning to work, some was from documented immigrants. I won’t spend a lot of time on this here – but my general assumption is that folks that hire lots of illegal immigrants don’t volunteer that information to the government for surveys. So we don’t have good data on illegal immigration’s impact on the labor market – just guesses. But we see the labor force grow and the number of jobs created each much steadily trend lower. All of that was good normalization post covid. We shouldn’t be creating 600k jobs each month, 100 – 200k was normal for the U.S. economy before Covid. Now we’ve reached equilibrium so to speak. The number of additions to the labor force is about even with nonfarm payroll growth. On the right, I subtracted labor force growth from Job creation to make it easy to see we stand. A number over zero means we have enough jobs. When the line drifts below zero for any meaningful period of time, we have a problem – unemployment should begin to rise if that happens because we are no longer creating enough jobs to support the growth of the labor force.

You can see on the right, we are hanging right around the neutral 0 point on the graph. It’s important to remember, the economy can hang on right here. We create just enough jobs for the workforce. The problem, in my mind, is that the Fed still has rates at 5% - which is putting the brakes on the economy. We know that rate cuts take time to work their way through – so it seems logical to me that job creation will continue to weaken slowly over the coming months – even as the Fed continues to cut rates. To me, the weakening labor market is the biggest risk to the economy over the next 12 months. We aren’t in a bad labor situation yet – but we are getting very close.

Layoffs remain very low but my view is that companies are starting to economize. Operating margins are ok for the moment, but we are seeing what I would call stealth layoffs. Companies calling workers back into the office 5 days a week on short notice, things like that where they expect some workers to decide to leave their job. Historically, economists have assumed that the majority of “exits” from the labor force – that is people that leave a job and don’t file for unemployment because they stop looking for work – are voluntary – for family reasons, etc. There was a good paper this past quarter from the Minneapolis Fed that shows that 40% of the exits from the labor force are preceded by a layoff. So I think we are seeing – and have seen historically – more layoffs in the economy than we think. Whether they show up as warn notices or formal layoffs or not – they are people losing their job – not quitting by choice. 

It's also become much harder to get a job according to surveys or workers – or at least they feel that it’s harder to get a job.

So we are wading around in the muck of the soft employment part of the soft landing. The problem is interest rates.

Even with the most recent Fed cut, The Fed Funds rate sits at 5%. Prior to the September jobs report, markets were expecting cuts more quickly, but that has now corrected slightly. You can see the market is expecting the Fed to cut more this year and next, dropping the rate down to 3.75% by next June. The market – and the median Fed member – both think the long-term neutral rate is about 3%.

But that is high compared to neutral and inflation. If long-term expectations for neutral are 3% and the Fed is at 5%, they are still slamming the brakes on the economy. Even when they go to 4.75 and then to 4, they will still have the brakes on. Meanwhile, we know from the unemployment discussion that we are sitting right in balance and can’t afford to go much lower without seeing unemployment move higher – which leads to a recession.

Inflation

You may hear some skeptics talk about inflation going higher again. I don’t see that happening. Even with this past month’s slightly hot print, the trend in prices is down. Goods prices have moved lower – and are deflating – prices are going down – even if they took a breather this past month. Businesses are saying they don’t have pricing power. What was more notable than the headline numbers in the September report was that housing prices continued to move lower. The lag in Housing and Owners Equivalent Rent prices in the CPI is responsible for the print still being north of the 2% target, we know that if you substitute the measured they use in the CPI calculations for more current market pricing, the CPI would be below 2%. If the housing inflation reflected in the CPI continues to move lower, which I expect this fall, then we will see inflation continue to fall.  

Retail sales, the spending side of the consumer equation, continues to be positive but sluggish as well 2% retail sales growth over the past year lags inflation. For context, retail sales typically were north of 3.5% on average prior to Covid. They should rise slightly more than inflation in order to produce real economic growth. So not negative, but more walking around in the muck and mire.

So the economy is growing. Somewhat slowly, more likely closer to 2% than the 3%+ we have seen coming out of Covid – and that’s the backdrop than informs how we think about investing in stocks and other asset classes.

What’s Happening in Real Life with Companies

As we shift to the stock market, it’s important to remember, even though we tend to use broad indicies as investment vehicles – the stock market is not the economy. When we invest in stocks, we are buying ownership in a set of companies that have revenues and profits. So its important to dig down past the macro data from the news and see what’s happening at the company level. Last quarter, I talked through a few company updates outside the widely reported tech sector, and I think it’s good to revisit that list as it should inform our view of what’s really happening in the world outside of government statistics.

Walmart and Target both commented last quarter about the resilience of the consumer. Both are seeing “trade down” activity as consumers spend on cheaper goods – which requires them to discount – but both are still seeing consumers spend. That helps validate what we see in the high-level economic data – things are slowing down but we aren’t falling off a cliff into a recession anytime soon. On the business Capex side, Honeywell did well and exceeded expectations selling big industrial equipment. Meanwhile, Caterpillar missed their revenue expectations on slower activity from customers. Their revenues are expected to be close to flat from 2023. So again, some slowing. Accenture had similar comments. Businesses are spending on large cost reduction transformations and less on more discretionary items. Their business is growing, but slowly. So businesses, like consumers, are being more conscious of cost and spending as the economy slows. Financial services companies have a unique view into the consumer with payments data. On their earnings call, Mastercard said they saw record cross-border payment transactions, indicating lots of overseas travel for consumers. Going to Europe is not something you typically do if you are very concerned about your finances. JP Morgan continues to see the reversal of the big rebound in travel and entertainment spending that occurred after Covid, but it’s a reversal back to normal levels, not a big pull back in spending.

Stock Market Outlook - Mag 7 vs. the 493

Let’s shift gears and talk about stocks for a few minutes. We have seen a change in what’s working since the Q2 earnings period in August. You see for the year, growth stocks, particularly the mag 7 are leading the way. But an interesting thing happened in August. For the last 2 years, those companies have beaten expectations and those beats caused the markets to raise the future expectations for the stock and thus the price just kept going up. Eventually, most reached really high valuation levels in the 20s or 30 times earnings. With valuations that high, the market expects absolutely astronomical performance. Which it got…until August. Companies like Nvidia and Microsoft reported earnings growth – even significant growth. Microsoft grew its cloud business by 30% - slightly beating expectations. Nvidia was a similar story. But it just wasn’t enough for the market – and the stocks have underperformed since. Since July 15th, the equal weight index is up more than 8% and the Mag seven are essentially flat, down just over 1%. My view is that the market has finally priced in all the future growth its going to price in for these companies. Its hard to time the markets, and simply being overvalued is no reason for a sell off, but I do think the performance around earnings last quarter is a clue that the Mag 7, now that valuations and prices have run up so much, The Mag 7 just can’t do enough to make the market happy. Even beating expectations wasn’t enough to drive prices higher. So at last, perhaps the long awaited rotation into all stocks except the Mag 7 is here. That would also fit an economy that is no longer slowing down, but stabilizing at a slow growth rate.

Outside of the largest companies in the U.S., small and mid-cap companies are having a good year from a return perspective. Returns year to date are in the teens, certainly above long-term averages. However, they still trail the large cap stock universe. Smaller companies are less profitable and rely more on debt than their large cap brethren. Smaller cap stocks have run up quickly when stories about reductions in interest rates hit the news cycle. However, those potential interest rate deductions are because the economy is slowing down, which hurts small cap company profitability more than larger cap stocks. So, my view is that any rise in small cap stocks is likely to be short lived. I do think continuing to own smaller company stocks makes sense, but until we e enough data to confirm that the soft landing isn’t going to turn into a recession, I would tread lightly here.

International Stocks and China

On the international front, the U.S. continues to lead the way. This has been true really for the last decade. The common refrain is that Stocks in Europe or Japan are undervalued relative to their U.S. counterparts. As I mentioned before, valuation alone isn’t an investment thesis. Some things are cheap because, well, they aren’t worth very much. To be more comfortable owning lots of European and Australian stocks, we need a catalyst for driving future growth. I don’t see that currently. The Eurozone continues to teeter on the edge of a recession and there have not been macro level changes that would make me believe that more innovation is about to materialize in Europe than the U.S. On the emerging market front, I think there is a more positive story in select emerging markets. As a reminder, my preferred approach in EM is to be active, looking for great companies not just investing in the index, which is dominated by China. The move out of China into places like India and Vietnam continues as companies diversify their supply chain risk. China has rallied recently on expectations of significant government stimulus to help fix their real estate market. I view their policy action so far as fixing the wrong problem. Any form of large government stimulus will juice markets, and that has most definitely happened over September and October, but the issue in China is the long-term trend of saving vs. spending. Their economy is geared towards exports, not domestic spending. Until the CCP decides to encourage a change in behavior, I don’t think they can get back on a long-term growth path. Couple the lack of consumption with what appears to be a more isolationist regime, and you get a fairly negative outlook for the country near term. When we think about investing in Emerging markets, China is more than 30% of the MSCI EM index, so active management is important to reduce exposure to China and to find other more attractive opportunities.

Oil and Commodities

Since we are talking about international affairs, perhaps this is a good time to discuss Oil as the conflict in the middle east seems to be dragging on and not winding down. I wrote about this in LinkedIn a few weeks ago. Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism is horrendous and the human toll of conflict in the middle east is terrible. However, from an economic perspective, Iran matters little.

On the left hand chart, you can see the spike in oil prices in 2022 at the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, reflecting the changes in the market that occurred following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil. Prices have since fallen and remain range bound between 65 and 80ish dollars a barrel as the market adjusted to the new dynamics brought about by Russia’s invasion.

An attack on Iran’s oil facilities, even a complete shut down in production, would likely drive oil prices higher temporarily like the Ukraine – Russia situation, but Iran’s production could be replaced by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC + members. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iran produces about 3.1 million barrels of oil per day. Saudi Arabia alone has 3 million barrels of spare capacity and the other members of OPEC+ have another 2 million barrels combined. It’s not in the interest of the other oil producing countries to have prices so high that they cause a recession. That reduces demand for their oil products and is counterproductive for their economies in the long-term. They prefer stable prices, in my view, in the $80 range. As I have written previously, the world has more than enough oil to meet demand, we simply fight over daily production amounts and price. The only situation that poses a substantial risk to oil production is a wider regional war in the middle east that involved countries beyond Israel and Iran. U.S. oil production and “energy independence” often comes up in this discussion. You can see in the chart to the right, U.S. oil production is up roughly 50million barrels a month over the last 3 years. Why didn’t that cause prices to drop? The reason is that Oil is a global market. Changes in U.S. production simply cause other countries to produce less. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t produce more Oil in the U.S., there are great geo-strategic reasons for the U.S. to not be dependent on foreign production if a conflict developed, but increasing production in the U.S. does not generally drive prices lower across the Globe. At the beginning of the year, we discussed oil and other commodities as “trading assets” for investors that like to make short-term bets on supply and demand. That’s not what we do so our view is that Oil isn’t particularly attractive as a investment asset at the moment. Even as a risk management tool, Gold and Bonds work to hedge portfolios against global conflict, probably better than oil.

Long-Term Interest Rates and Bonds

Let’s talk a bit about rates and bonds. We discussed these charts earlier this year when the 10 year U.S. treasury was yielding north of 4.5% and it was easier to make the case that lower inflation should bring rates down over the long-term. I expected that to play out over 9-12 months. Instead, we had rates fall to 4.2% over the summer, and from 4.2% to 3.8% over about 5 days in August. Recently rates have been back up again, but rates have moved substantially lower since Q2 so the natural question is how to invest now that rates have begun to move lower. Are they low enough or should we expect interest rates to continue to drop and increase bond prices?

We discussed inflation and the Fed earlier in this episode, but it’s important to remember the economic backdrop when we talk about interest rates. Expectations for inflation and the Fed reserve’s policy rate ultimately cause market interest rates to go up or down.

We see the government inflation data as continuing to move lower toward 2% over the next couple of quarters. In our view, the Fed needs to cut rates back to neutral to keep the labor market on track. The expectations for future Fed rate cuts have caused rates to move lower ahead of those rate cuts. The market is expecting the Fed to cut rates to around 3.5% by the middle of next year.

This chart has a lot going on, but it’s helpful to understand the historical interest rate environment relative to inflation and the Fed’s “neutral rate.” Before the financial crisis in 2008, we had a period of falling rates, but where interest rates were generally higher and spreads – which is a fancy finance word for the different between say the 10 year treasury rate and the inflation rate – or the spread between the two – those spreads were wider in the 1990s and 2000s before the financial crisis. After the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve embarked on a decade of quantitative easing that push rates and spreads lower then they probably would have otherwise been. We also continue to see technological innovation, which drives inflation lower as innovation makes everything across the economy cheaper and cheaper over time after you adjust for inflation. So, my view is that we will continue to see innovation, we aren’t going completely back to the 1980s or 1990s, but we are done with Quantitative easing from the Fed, so we should land somewhere in the middle of the two scenarios. The average spread of the 10 years over inflation as measured by the Core PCE, which is the measure the Fed uses for targeting, was 3.6% in the 1990s an 1.1% in the financial repression period following the GFC. If you assume inflation will land at 2.0%, then that means 3% is about as low as the 10 year yield should go barring a recession. If you assume inflation lands at 2.5%, then 3.5% is about as low as it should go without a recession. We got very close to the 3.7% a month ago. If we went all the way back to the 1990s, the spread should be closer to 3.6%. Inflation at 2% means a 10 year at 6.5% and 7% if you assume inflation moves to 3.5%. Again, I don’t expect a reversion back to the 1990s, but my view is that it is wise to assume that the 10 year Treasury shouldn’t fall much below 3.5% unless there is a very real recession around the corner.

All of that means that investors should be weary of adding to long-term fixed income positions when rates are below 4%, but since we see the economy continuing to slow, if narrowly avoiding a recession, perhaps adding longer term fixed income when rates are north of 4%. Again, timing interest rate markets is no different than trying to time the stock market. So the best way to invest in bonds is to own a diversified portfolio over long periods of time and perhaps make small adjustments at the margin, don’t try to go all in on any one interest rate expectation

If we look at bonds outside of treasuries, there are opportunities to pick up additional yield by taking on a little more risk than U.S. government bonds. I also think owning a diversified bond portfolio protects against the risk, albeit remote, of the U.S. government missing bond payments, shutting down, printing more money etc. You can see on the chart High Yield U.S. corporate bonds yield almost 7%. These are companies that do carry default risk, but our view is that the extra interest more than compensates for that default risk in typical non-recessionary years. Emerging Market Country debt also carries a yield north of 6%. When you buy higher yielding bonds, I think diversification is important.  These are assets that tend to lose value quickly when the economic cycle changes or when an unpredictable black swan event occurs. Diversifying exposure allows you to minimize the chances than an unforeseen event will impact a large portion of your high yield bond portfolio. Even with the economy slowing down, high yield defaults have still been close to the historical 4% range. More importantly, those defaults are occurring more heavily in the private side of the market, known sometimes as the leveraged loan or bank loan market, as opposed to the publicly traded side of the market we show here. We don’t know the cause of that shift, but my view is that the rise of private credit increased competition for loans in that space, causing new private investment funds to compete for a smaller pool of potential loans by offering credit on more favorable terms than they otherwise should have. The result is that the private side of the market carries more credit risk than the companies that issued junk rated debt on public markets. So diversify and watch your credit quality, and you can pick up extra returns in the high yield space.

If you move down the page, even high quality investment grade companies in the U.S., the blue line on the chart, offer rates north of the treasury line at the bottom. All of these kinds of bonds benefit from lower long-term rates. So building your bond portfolio out beyond treasuries offers the opportunity to pick up excess income while rates remain high, and still benefit if rates do move lower over the long -term.

Gold

Our last asset class is Gold. You can see the Gold price is up north of 2800/oz, more than 27% for the year. There have been two main drivers, both of which I would expect to continue at least through year end. The first is central bank buying. Central banks around the world are buying more gold to replace their dollar reserves. Some refer to this as “de-dollarization.” This creates some consternation that perhaps the U.S. dollar has a long term problem, but I view that as far fetched. What we have seen so far is more like an adjustment from foreign central banks and because their balance sheets are so large, a small percentage exchange from dollars to gold can drive the price up materially. The dollar is still the largest reserve currency – or asset – by far at most central banks and I expect that to be the case for the foreseeable future. All of that buying activity seems to be continuing, so I would expect the price of gold to continue moving higher as central banks continue buying. The other major factor is lower interest rates. Investors looking for safe haven assets sold gold and bought short term bonds when rates were higher. They could earn that high coupon and bet on rates to eventually drop. As rates come down, the “give up” for holding gold instead of short-term bonds is less – thus making it a more attractive safe-haven asset for investors. I don’t think Gold will continue higher for years, but it seems there is still plenty of demand from both central banks and investors for now.

Election Impact

Alright, anyone notice we have an election coming up, so I’ll close this quarter on potential outcomes and risks. As we sit in mid-October, the race is essentially a dead heat. Former President Trump certainly has the recent momentum and has moved the national polling into a race that current shows Vice President Harris with less than a 1% point lead nationally. Nationally, most pollsters think that Harris needs a 2-3 point advantage nationally to win the electoral college because she will pick up lots of votes in population centers like California and New York without gaining in the electoral college. Winning New York for example by 1 vote is the same thing as willing by 1 million votes from an electoral college stand point. Trump is also polling ahead in most of the Battlegrounds currently, which gives him an advantage in the electoral college. The problem is that both the national polls and the battleground polls are well inside the margin of error. Historically, the error has under counted republican votes and over counted democratic votes, but there is no guarantee that will happen this time. So for now, I would suggest it’s a very close race, perhaps with a very slight nod to Trump. If the trend continues in his direction, then he would certainly be the favorite going into election day. I did an entire podcast on the candidates economic proposals earlier in the fall, so for a detailed discussion, I would refer you back to that video or podcast episode. In short, both have good and bad economic policies. Kamala Harris would raise personal and corporate taxes to fund more spending, that would directly reduce the earnings of stocks over the next few years. But, raising taxes requires help from congress, and I view a significant increase as unlikely in a split congress. Even if the democrats control the house and senate, they will not have a filibuster proof majority. Trump would likely raise tariffs, which are inflationary at the margin. Its more likely that the increases are well below the 10% starting point he campaigns on, like his first administration. Couple slight tariff increases with a generally deflationary environment for goods, I don’t see Tariffs sparking a major rebound in inflation. So I don’t think there is a huge risk if either candidate wins the election. The real risk looming is the potential for the Fed to over-stay their welcome with high rates and push the economy into an unnecessary recession, not anything proposed by the presidential candidates. The market generally does well after the uncertainity around the election wears off, so I have no reason t expect anything different this year short of either an unexpected red or blue sweep.

Takeaways for Investors

So what should investors do given everything we’ve discussed:

1. Don’t be swayed by the monthly volatility of economic data. The economy is doing fine – not great – but its hanging in there – and some months will be hot and others cold for the time being. Don’t let those fluctuations influence your investment strategy or you may get whipsawed.

2. Consider diversifying your stock holdings. If you are significantly over allocated to U.S. tech or the “Mag 7,” consider adding more to the other buckets of your equity portfolio.

3. I would consider adding to the maturity of bond portfolios when rates stay above 4%, but don’t get suckered into buying when rates are too low. Also remember to diversify your bond portfolio to pick up extra yield outside the treasury market.

As we move towards the end of the year, I have a couple interesting episodes headed your way. We will do an episode on alternatives, so if you are interested in private debt, or private equity or real estate, tune into to that later this month. I’ll also follow up on the investment implications of the election after we know the results and we will do an episode dedicated to year end tax planning so that you can make sure you take advantage of opportunities before the end of December comes around. I look forward to seeing you soon – either in person or on the next episode of the Capital Stewards Podcast.